Browns vs. 49ers odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from dialed-in model on 83-54 run

The San Francisco 49ers will try to prove they have turned a corner when they host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. Seeking their first 4-0 start since 1990, the Niners are rested after a week off. A surprising defense and the return of franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo have hopes soaring in the Bay Area. The Browns, coming off a big victory against Baltimore, might be their biggest test so far and are making their second Monday Night Football appearance of the season. Kickoff for Niners vs. Browns is at 8:15 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium. San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Browns vs. 49ers odds after the line opened at a field goal, while the over-under for total points scored is 47.5, unchanged from the opener. Before making your 49ers vs. Browns picks, listen to the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on an eye-popping 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has broken down Browns vs. 49ers. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it has generated an against the spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine.

The model knows Garoppolo (763 yards, five TDs) gives the 49ers a steady presence under center; plus, he has a lot of help. The rushing game is second in the NFL, averaging 175 yards behind Matt Breida (226 yards) and Raheem Mostert (202). Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle is the key to the passing game, with 17 catches for 165 yards. He is off to a slow start, but the bar is high after he set the NFL record for yardage by a tight end last season with 1,377. 

The additions of No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa (17 QB pressures, one sack) and veteran Dee Ford (two sacks) have helped make a difference for the San Francisco defense, which is allowing only 18 points per game. The Niners have scored 31 points off seven takeaways and generated nine sacks in three games. The 49ers will try to extend a Browns record of 0-6 against the spread in their past six games following a straight-up victory of at least 14 points.

But just because San Francisco appears to be on an upward swing doesn't mean it will cover the Browns vs. 49ers spread on Monday Night Football.

Running back Nick Chubb broke free last week for 165 yards, including an 88-yard touchdown run, to give the Browns a balanced attack. He is fourth in the NFL with 398 rushing yards entering Week 5. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards and a touchdown in the victory and has game-changing weapons in wide receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, the latter of whom will likely play despite suffering a concussion and had eight catches for 167 yards last week.

The Browns' defense limited high-powered Baltimore to 222 yards and sacked Lamar Jackson four times. Defensive end Myles Garrett is second in the NFL with six sacks. Joe Schobert has been a force at linebacker, with his 44 tackles ranking fifth in the league. The Browns are seventh in the league against the pass, allowing 215.2 yards per game.